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The Option Value of Innovative Treatments for Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer and Renal Cell Carcinoma
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The Option Value of Innovative Treatments for Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer and Renal Cell Carcinoma

Julia Thornton Snider, PhD; Katharine Batt, MD, MSc; Yanyu Wu, PhD; Mahlet Gizaw Tebeka, MS; and Seth Seabury, PhD
Option value is the benefit a therapy provides patients by enabling them to survive to the next innovation.
In addition, sensitivity analyses showed that option value was quantitatively important across a range of modeling assumptions. In particular, the results were robust to alternative specifications of the survival model, assumptions on the use of nivolumab and its effects, and alternative stage definitions.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent innovations in oncology have allowed patients to live long enough to gain access to more effective future treatments; this is their option value. This study quantifies the option value of nivolumab for metastatic RCC and metastatic NSCLC and shows that it is substantial. Option value is therefore important to patients, payers, providers, and society as a whole.

Author Affiliations: Precision Health Economics (JTS, KB, YW, MGT, SS), Los Angeles, CA; Wake Forest University School of Medicine (KB), Winston-Salem, NC; University of Southern California Schaeffer Center (SS), Los Angeles, CA.

Source of Funding: Financial support for this research was provided by Bristol-Myers Squibb.

Author Disclosures: Dr Snider is an employee of and holds equity in Precision Health Economics, which receives consulting payments from life sciences companies and received consulting fees from Bristol-Myers Squibb for the conduct of this study. Dr. Wu and Ms. Tebeka were employees of Precision Health Economics at the time this study was conducted. Drs Batt and Seabury are consultants for Precision Health Economics. 

Authorship Information: Concept and design (JTS, KB, YW, SS); acquisition of data (YW); analysis and interpretation of data (JTS, KB, YW, MGT, SS); drafting of the manuscript (JTS, KB, MGT, SS); critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content (JTS, KB, YW, MGT, SS); statistical analysis (JTS, YW, SS); provision of patients or study materials (YW, MGT); obtaining funding (JTS); administrative, technical, or logistic support (YW, MGT); and supervision (JTS, SS).

Address Correspondence to: Seth Seabury, PhD, University of Southern California, USC Schaeffer Center, 635 Downey Way, Los Angeles, CA 90089-3333. E-mail: seabury@usc.edu.
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