
Kaiser Analysis: For Many, Health Coverage Costs Less Than Individual Mandate Penalty
While consumers must buy coverage or face penalties under the individual mandate for now, there is speculation that a Trump tax plan could remove this feature of the Affordable Care Act.
For Americans weighing the cost of buying health coverage versus going without, the changing math of 2018 makes the choice easier: 54% of those uninsured and eligible for plans under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) could buy one for less than the penalty they’d pay to go without coverage.
What’s more, among the 5.8 million in this group, about 4.5 million—or 42% of all Americans eligible for ACA coverage who lack it today—could get a bronze plan for free, once they take income-related premium tax credits, according to a
How could this be? It goes back to President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel cost-sharing reductions, the payments to insurers that help them meet ACA requirements for offering low-cost coverage to the poorest Americans.
Trump’s move, coming late as it did on
The flip side, of course, is that those at the other end of the income scale are being charged much more. For these consumers, the cost-benefit analysis of going without coverage could look quite different. Only 2% of uninsured, market-eligible consumers who don’t qualify for a subsidy can pay less for ACA coverage than they would owe for a penalty next year, the Kaiser analysis found.
The ACA’s many elements—subsidized coverage, Medicaid expansion, and the threat of penalties if one lacks coverage—combined to drive uninsured levels to record lows in 2016. However, a recent
The future of the individual mandate is uncertain. There is speculation it could be canceled as part of a tax plan being weighed in Congress. A
However, there are signs that Americans are aware of this year’s shorter sign-up window for ACA coverage or that the quirks in the premium schedules are attracting lower-income consumers. The Hill reports that
Open enrollment is only 6 weeks long this year, ending December 15, 2017.
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