Health Care Spending to Hit $9 Trillion by 2034, According to New Analysis

Health expenditures throughout the country will nearly double in less than a decade, according to a federal report released on Wednesday, as projections show that health expenditures will near $9 trillion by 2034, increasing from the projected $5.7 trillion spent in 2025.¹

The increase in health spending is set to outpace the economy, increasing by an average of 5.4% each year until 2034. In contrast, the economy will grow about 4.1% in that same period. The health care spending will account for 20.6% of gross domestic product by 2034 should these projections prove accurate.

The rise in costs could be attributed to several moves made by the Trump administration. Notably, changes in Medicaid enrollment rules will likely lead to millions losing their health insurance.² The One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduced work requirements to Medicaid eligibility, with all those enrolled in Medicaid required to provide work status every 6 months, showing that they had at least 80 activity hours per month unless they were given an exemption.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that these changes will lead to 5.2 million adults losing Medicaid coverage by 2034 and would lead to cuts of about $324 billion. This would lead to the number of uninsured people in the US rising from about 28 million in 2024 to more than 33 million by 2034.¹ This would lead to 90.5% of the US population being insured by 2034, a decrease from the projected 91.8% in 2024.³ These laws could ultimately cost the US more in health care spending, as patients will not be able to seek health care as frequently without insurance to cover the services.

Changes in Medicaid will not go into effect until 2027, indicating that any loss of enrollment between 2026 and 2034 will begin on January 1, 2027. Private insurance could supplement those who lose Medicaid, though expenditures by private insurance will likely increase by 5% on average through 2034, totaling $2.68 trillion in spending by that year.¹ Medicaid expenditures are projected to total $1.52 trillion by 2034.

Medicare enrollment will also play into the increase in health care spending in the US, as more adults will find themselves using Medicare as the population ages. Experts estimate that, as Medicaid enrollment shrinks by 3% to 81.8 million, the enrollment in Medicare will increase 17.3% to 78.1 million. Spending on Medicare will also increase by a projected 7.7% per year, totaling $2.35 trillion by 2034.

The increased use of medical services is also an area that will lead to increased spending, including retail prescription drugs such as the increased use of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and oncology drugs.³ The continued use of these drugs, which are sold at higher prices to patients, will likely lead to higher health care spending overall.

Health care spending continues to increase year over year, with the expenditures set to outpace economic growth. These expenditures will need to be taken into account as any legislation surrounding health care spending is addressed in the future.

References

1. Early B. US health spending projected to hit $9T by 2034. Modern Healthcare. June 24, 2026. Accessed June 25, 2026. https://www.modernhealthcare.com/politics-regulation/mh-us-health-spending-2034-cms/
2. Bonavitacola J. Medicaid work requirements set to leave millions without insurance. AJMC^®. November 4, 2025. Accessed June 25, 2026. https://www.ajmc.com/view/medicaid-work-requirements-set-to-leave-millions-without-insurance
3. Minemyer P. US health spending set to reach $9T by 2034: CMS report. Fierce Healthcare. June 24, 2026. Accessed June 25, 2026. https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/finance/us-health-spending-set-reach-9t-2034-cms-report