
Provisional Data Predict Overdose Death Rates Will Fall for First Time in Decades
While the final figure is still being determined, the provisional data predict a total of 69,096 drug overdose deaths for a 12-month period ending November 2018, compared with the predicted 72,287 for the 12-month period ending November 2017.
Offering cautious optimism,
While the final figure is still being determined, the provisional data predict a total of 69,096 drug overdose deaths for a 12-month period ending November 2018, compared with the predicted 72,287 for the 12-month period ending November 2017. If the trend continues through December 2018, it would be the first time annual drug overdose death rates have dropped since the 1990s. In the 3 decades since, drug overdoses have killed approximately 870,000 people.
Indications of declining overdose death rates
Between 1999 and 2017, the
While some states are predicted to see significant drops in drug overdose deaths between November 2017 and November 2018, other states are expected to see their rates continue to climb. Ohio, which had a predicted 4017 overdose deaths in November 2017, is expected to have 5234 overdose deaths in November 2018, representing a 23.3% decrease. Meanwhile, Missouri is expected to see a 15.3% increase (1415 vs 1632) and New Jersey is expected to see a 11.6% increase (2660 vs 2969).
Despite the expected decrease, the United States is not yet out of the woods, with
"The provisional drug overdose data does indicate that it is likely we will see a small decline from 2017 to 2018. Provisional data for the 12 months ending November 2018 show a decline of a little more than 3000 deaths compared with the 12-month period ending November 2017. So, it seems that we may have reached a peak in the epidemic," said Robert N Anderson, PhD, chief, Mortality Statistics Branch, National Center for Health Statistics, CDC, in an email to The American Journal of Managed Care®. "That said, the number of deaths for 2018 is still predicted to be nearly 70,000. That is a lot of people dying much too young. Even if the decline holds once the data are final, it is too soon to declare victory."
Anderson also emphasized that the data are still provisional: "Some cases have not yet been fully investigated or adjudicated, so our data are incomplete. However, our predictive models that take into account the incompleteness of the data tend to perform pretty well, and these models do indicate a small decline. Also, it is really impossible to predict what will happen for the next few years. This may just be a lull in the epidemic or some new deadly drug will be introduced that exacerbates the situation. Hence, our cautious optimism with regard to the provisional data."
However, the provisional data are encouraging. One possibility for the predicted decline in drug overdose deaths could be expanded access to naloxone, which counteracts opioid overdoses. In April 2018, Surgeon General Jerome M. Adams, MD,
States have also tried to increase access to naloxone. On June 18, New Jersey
Newsletter
Stay ahead of policy, cost, and value—subscribe to AJMC for expert insights at the intersection of clinical care and health economics.