Global Skin Cancer Burden Projected to Rise Sharply Through 2050, Especially in Low-, Middle-Income Regions

Melanoma, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) continue to pose a growing and uneven global health burden, with incidence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) projected to rise sharply through 2050, particularly in low- and middle-sociodemographic index (SDI) regions.¹

Malignant skin cancers pose a growing and uneven health burden worldwide.² Because of this, investigators of a research letter recently published in JAMA Dermatology summarized the epidemiology and subgroup patterns of these cancers while also projecting trends through 2050.¹

They analyzed estimates within the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database, spanning 1990-2023, for malignant melanoma, cutaneous SCC, and BCC. Primary outcomes included prevalence and DALYs, defined as a composite of years of life lost to premature death and years lived with disability.

Subgroup analyses were stratified by sex, age group, and SDI (range, 0-1), a composite metric reflecting fertility rates, educational attainment, and per capita income. In addition, future burden through 2050 was projected using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.

Shifting Skin Cancer Trends by SDI, Sex, and Age Group

In 2023, the skin cancer burden was concentrated in high-SDI regions. Melanoma prevalence was highest in Oceania, exceeding 300 cases per 100,000 people. Specifically, melanoma DALYs were highest in Australia, New Zealand, and the Nordic countries.

Meanwhile, SCC prevalence peaked in high-income Western countries, particularly the US, where rates surpassed 200 cases per 100,000. SCC DALYs were concentrated in Australia, Brazil, and the Caribbean. The BCC burden was most pronounced in Oceania, North America, and Northern Europe, with DALYs highest in Australia and North America.

From 1990 to 2023, trends diverged sharply by socioeconomic setting. Low- and middle-SDI regions recorded consistent increases in incidence across all 3 cancers. In particular, melanoma grew by 258.8% in East Asia and 274.6% in Andean Latin America. High-income North America showed the opposite pattern for melanoma, however, with incidence falling 10.5%. At the same time, SCC rose by 154.1% in the region, with BCC also climbing 34.6%.

Melanoma DALYs declined globally, most steeply in high-SDI regions, down 36.1% in North America and 33.9% in Central Asia. By contrast, SCC DALYs increased 93.2% in low-SDI settings. Meanwhile, BCC DALYs were relatively stable overall but rose by 45.1% in East Asia and 39.6% in the high-income Asia-Pacific region.

Male patients consistently recorded higher prevalence rates across all 3 cancers. Melanoma prevalence in 2023 was 28.2 cases per 100,000 in men vs 25.6 in women, with declines between 2010 and 2023 in both sexes. Additionally, age-stratified analysis showed melanoma prevalence rising most steeply in adults aged 70 and older, whereas those aged 30 to 49 saw declines. Decomposition analysis determined population growth as the primary driver of rising SCC and BCC case counts, while epidemiological changes drove melanoma increases, especially in lower-SDI regions.

BAPC projections indicate continued global burden increases through 2050. Melanoma DALYs are expected to rise from approximately 2 million in 2025 to more than 3.3 million by 2050. SCC DALYs are also projected to climb from 1.2 million to 4.0 million over the same period. However, BCC is forecast to carry the heaviest total burden, approaching 5.0 million DALYs by 2050, with low- and middle-SDI regions facing the steepest growth trajectories.

Limitations: Data Gaps, Underestimation in Low-SDI Settings

The researchers acknowledged several key limitations, including that GBD estimates may underestimate disease burden in low-SDI settings due to limited health care infrastructure and incomplete reporting. Additionally, the projections could be influenced by public health policies and health care resource allocation. Still, the authors expressed confidence in their findings, highlighting factors that may be driving disparities across regions.

“High-SDI regions benefit from well-established dermatological surveillance systems, routine skin examinations, and public awareness campaigns, facilitating earlier detection, whereas low- and middle-SDI settings often face limitations in specialized health care resources and population-based screening programs, potentially leading to underdiagnosis in early stages and contributing to the observed variations in incidence and prevalence patterns,” they wrote.

References

1. Zhou Y, Zhong W, Liu X, Zhang J. Global skin cancer burden from 1990 to 2023 and projection to 2050. JAMA Dermatol. Published online May 13, 2026. doi:10.1001/jamadermatol.2026.0964
2. Zhang W, Zeng W, Jiang A, et al. Global, regional, and national incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years of skin cancers and trend analysis from 1990 to 2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Cancer Med. 2021;10(14):4905-4922. doi:10.1002/cam4.4046