Post-Dobbs Abortion Bans Raised Birth Rates and Strained Food Aid Program

States that enacted total abortion bans following the Supreme Court's 2022 Dobbs decision experienced a measurable increase in birth rates and a significant rise in enrollment in a federal nutrition program, according to new peer-reviewed research published in Economic Inquiry.¹

The study, conducted by University of Kansas economist Lilly Springer, MA, finds that states with total abortion bans in effect by the start of 2023 saw a 1.57% increase in their monthly birth rate that year, roughly 1210 additional births per month, or approximately 14,500 extra births over the course of the year across the 13 states that had fully prohibited abortion.

However, in addition to assessing the birth rate post Dobbs, previous research explored how the infant mortality rate has changed alongside the rising birth rate. In a study analyzing US national vital statistics data from 2012 to 2023, data show a significant rise in infant mortality following state-level abortion restrictions that translated to an estimated 478 excess infant deaths during the months affected by the bans.² Across the 14 states with bans, the observed infant mortality rate was 6.26 per 1000 live births compared with an expected rate of 5.93, resulting in an absolute increase of 0.33 (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.14-0.51) and a relative increase of 5.60% (95% Crl, 2.43%-8.73%). Authors noted that the impact was particularly severe among Black individuals, those in Southern states, and infants with congenital anomalies.

In the new study, Springer also found downstream effects on the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, known as WIC, which provides food assistance to low-income pregnant women, new mothers, and young children.¹ Monthly WIC participation among postpartum nonbreastfeeding women rose 4.3% in states with total abortion bans, while enrollment of fully formula-fed infants increased 2.1%. Together, these increases added an estimated $6.9 million in food costs across the affected states in 2023 alone.

Connecting Abortion Policy to the Safety Net

The study is the first to draw a direct, causal link between abortion access and participation in a social safety net program using large-scale administrative data. To isolate the effect of the bans, Springer used the synthetic difference-in-differences statistical method, comparing ban states against a weighted group of states that had protected abortion access but closely resembled the ban states beforehand. The analysis drew on monthly state-level data from 2017 through 2023, covering CDC birth records and US Department of Agriculture WIC enrollment figures.

The WIC increases were larger than the birth rate increase because WIC benefits are not a one-time event: A nonbreastfeeding mother can receive benefits for up to 6 months postpartum, and her infant for up to 12 months, meaning each additional birth compounds in the monthly enrollment data over time.

Who Was Affected

Birth rate increases appeared across education levels, affecting both mothers whose highest attainment was a high school diploma and those with a bachelor's degree or higher. The WIC effects, however, were concentrated among lower-income women, reflecting the program's income eligibility requirements. No significant changes were found for breastfeeding women, partially breastfed infants, or children—groups whose WIC eligibility is less directly tied to the timing of a birth.

A Program Without a Guaranteed Budget

One concern raised by the findings is that WIC is not an entitlement program. Congress appropriates a fixed budget each year, and if demand exceeds a state's allocation, eligible applicants can be placed on a waiting list. With 12 states still enforcing total abortion bans as of late 2025, the ongoing pressure on WIC budgets may leave some eligible mothers and infants without immediate access to benefits.

Springer notes that the 1.57% birth rate increase is somewhat smaller than figures found in earlier studies covering only the first half of 2023 and attributes the moderation partly to behavioral adaptation—as abortion medication and out-of-state access expanded over the year, some women found alternatives despite their state's ban. With only 1 treatment year of data available, longer-term research will be needed to assess the full and lasting impact of the bans.

The 1.57% figure also sits within the range of effects found by researchers studying other types of abortion restrictions. Studies examining targeted regulation of abortion provider laws found birth rate increases of 2% to 3%, whereas research on the effect of increasing travel distance to the nearest abortion clinic by 100 miles found a 2.2% rise in births. Springer's estimate is larger, however, than the 0.7% increase found in a study that looked at counties that lost a nearby abortion clinic. The comparatively modest effect found here likely reflects, Springer argues, the simultaneous expansion of contraceptive access and medication abortion during the same period, forces that partially offset the impact of the bans.

References

1. Springer L. Downstream effects of post-Dobbs abortion bans: birth rates and WIC. Econ Inq. Published online March 11, 2026. doi:10.1111/ecin.70053
2. Grossi G. Abortion in 2025: access, fertility, and infant mortality updates. AJMC^®. February 20, 2025. Accessed March 11, 2026. https://www.ajmc.com/view/abortion-in-2025-access-fertility-and-infant-mortality-updates